Stock Market Explorer

Posted on 16 Oct 2008

According to Nationwide, property prices slid 1.7% further in September 2008, the eleventh consecutive month of falls with an annual change of 12.4%. According to Halifax, house prices fell by 1.3% with an annual fall of 12.4%. The Halifax and Nationwide data is taken from the survey prices when mortgages are approved.

If however you view the Land Registry statistics in August 2008 the annual fall was only 4.6%. Why the big discrepancy? There are a number of reasons: the Land Registry uses the prices of what homes actually sold for, not for what they were valued at, they don't include Scotland and Northern Ireland and there can be a time delay of three months in the Land Registry receiving the data. It also only records the homes that have been sold and bought at least already once since 2000.

So let's look at what the experts are predicting for house prices:

On the relative optimistic side, the mortgage brokers, John Charcoal, expect house prices to fall by 15% maximum. The estate agency, Savills, expect prices to fall 25% in total by the end of 2009 and to stabilise in 2010. Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight expects house prices to fall 18% in 2008 and a further 15% in 2009. Capital Economics expect that the fall will be 35% from the peak in 2007. Nationwide don't provide a percentage figure but predict that there is "little to suggest that the market will turn around quickly".

How far house prices will fall depends on a number of factors. Crucially, banks are not willing to lend to each other and as a consequence banks will lend their precious cash only to the lowest-risk customers. With fewer customers coming into the property market, the property market will continue to fall. The public that can buy are generally postponing buying property until the market has bottomed out, and in doing so house prices fall further.

So what will happen after the fall hits the ground? With interest rates likely to be cut to 3.5%, and food and fuel prices coming down affordability should be easier. Once the banking crises rides itself out with the losers having lost and the winners having survived, will property prices rise and if so, when?

Savills predict that house prices will start to rise in 2011 reaching 2007 peaks by 2012. The National Housing Federation predict that prices will rise by 25% by 2011. You could argue that they both have particular interest in the prices rising and so are taking an optimistic view. However, also the Centre for Economic and Business Research believe that prices will rise by 30% rise between late 2009 and 2012 due to a shortage in new build.

This financial crisis is global. it's likely that there is worse to come before the market stabilises and when the recovery comes it will be within tighter boundaries of regulation and responsibility. This may make it a slow but, hopefully, a safe recovery.

Susy Copus writes about all aspects of the property market. Her work has featured the UK Property Search Engine, Wheres My Property, and Renovate Alerts who find property to renovate.