Stock Market Explorer

Posted on 17 Oct 2008

Just when you thought you've seen it all, right? Unbelievable but believable at the same time. Wow. We continue to pay the price for all of our nasty habits and Alan Greenspan is getting an eyebrow wax with Andrea Cramer somewhere in Turks and Caicos in between 400k speaking appearances. It ain't right I tell ya.

The "we almost are at a bottom" charlatans were out in full force today as they were out in full force at 11000, 10000 and 9000. When do they get a gag order put on them? A broken clock is right twice a day, and when we do bottom, CNBC will canonize them all as bottom callers, never once poking them in the eye for being so pathetically wrong. It's OK to be wrong, but please, please don't give credit they don't deserve.

Hey, people are truly getting killed. The investing public supposedly lost $3 trillion the day we lost seven hundred seventy-seven on the DOW last week and it has only gotten worse. I think it's safe to say that we can tack on another four or five trillion to that number now. As $ four gasoline price acted as a stealth but hurtful tax on the American public, now the demise of lifelong savings and investment can only add fuel to the fire. And this frankly is worse. Now the folks that legitimately need a few bucks from an equity line because they need a little help or a bridge will not be able to as credit has been cut off. i'm not talking about the guy that taps his line for a plasma TV in every room or a trip to Morocco with the wife, i'm talking about the guy that never abused the privilege but needs to reinvent himself through this tough time. It hasn't happened to me yet but i've spoken to many friends who have wonderful credit that have had their lines dramatically reduced or eliminated entirely.

So, what now? i'm clueless. You know i'm a bear so it's nearly impossible for me to predict anything but an oversold bounce, and it will be dramatic when it happens, maybe 1000 points up. Every time I try to make a case for a bullish slant I just end up with nothing. No catalysts at all, and we're entering a very deep global recession in my opinion. When Goldman Sachs and General Electric get on bended knee for money at usurious rates, it says it all in my book.

The shorts were let loose today and I was one of them like always. My only financial short was BAC because I just think they've just swallowed too much. I do believe their rock star status will soon be taken away as people find out what the true value of these banks really should be. Back in the day banks traded at four and five times earnings, but at least they "had" earnings. The dynamic has changed with the financials FOREVER and that is why i've leaned on them short for a year. And I include the brokerages particularly with that statement. And granted a year ago I had no idea of the depth and breadth of this implosion, but i'm a quick study.

Hopefully you're playing things small and not attempting to catch a bottom, because if you are, you now know what it's like to get your face thrashed off. I was guilty a few times today but my stops are so ridiculously tight that I can be wrong a lot and still make a lot of money. I posted the other day that it will be safe to get back in when they STOP selling rallies but that's all that the market continues to do for now. The guy that catches the bottom is like the guy that starts traffic, you'll never know who he's because he likely doesn't exist.

One thing i'll say is that we're closer to a bottom than ever. Hell, it's only another 8600 points. Hang in there and don't quit, it will be shooting ducks on the way up.

I am a former founder and manager of a large equity hedge fund. I now trade for myself and a few others. I love the market and offer daily commentary about the and its related tomfoolery and skulduggery

http://www.upsidetrader.blogspot.com